If you have ever wrestled with a big decision, this will be familiar to you…

After thinking about it for days, you have a sudden insight. You feel fairly certain about the course you should take. It feels like a weight has been lifted off your shoulders. But then…

You wake up the next morning and your insight from the day prior no longer seems that significant. Or you see a hole in your original thinking on the matter. The weight of the decision comes crashing back down on you.

This same pattern repeats itself over and over.

After several weeks, you no longer trust those moments of certainty. You take them with a grain of salt, knowing in a different mood or after a bit of reflection, there’s a good chance you’ll be back to square one.

This is a common experience that reflects uncertainty about the risks involved, uncertainty about the factors that matter most, and the effect of your changing moods.

After going back-and-forth on a decision for a long time,...